https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/reports/eb_inventory_02222024.xlsx

ur correct about 485 includes all the dependents. but what about consuler cases 44k???

yes we have to know if consuler cases are including

@Y A @sam young isn’t consular processing has its own processing time based on their own country which is different from AOS processing time?

different processing time but they use same visa no. from 10k otherwise with just pending 5k cases pd would be current, retrogression slow movement these all are because of 44k pending case at counselor.

@T N I don’t think so consular has it’s own process time. it’s all about when the pd is current. if pd is current it works for both consular and AOS. the only thing with consular is they have to wait for interview at consulate if PD gets current and interview call time varies depending on wait time.

@sam young so do you think how many consular processing cases is pending PD 2021, we know there is 5k cases PD 2021

@Y A could I send me a link for the total number of consular processing cases?

@T N 44k https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/WaitingList/WaitingListItem_2023_vF.pdf

@Y A thanks

I don’t think the number include dependents. The report just shows how many applicants are pending. And don’t get your hope high on the 10k visa per year, they often issue about 4-5k green cards per year, that includes both consular and uscis.

yes the I-485 data does includes dependents you best estimate of how much cases for consular processing would be to look at DOS DQ report that was released recently.

This report is showing only rest of the world dont forget that Philippine and Mexico is also the same PD as ROW

@Talkie Tag the data does provide mexico,china,India and Philippines. but regardless all four chargeability at maximum is 2800 of the maximum 10000. This means row at maximum can get 7200.

@T N your interpretation of the data is not correct. You also have to consider all pending I-485 before December 2021 not just from September 2020. The total pending I-485 with a December 2021 or earlier PD is 7048.

@hello mark But people in 2020 or earlier all got Green Card isn’t it?

@hello mark how do you know max is 2800 for all four chargebility?

@T N nope the data shows all the pending I-485 they have at USCIS key word "pending".

@T N the 2800 is based on assumptions and math. Firstly assuming that there is no family base spillover over the minimum GCs that will be available in October is 140k for all categories. Eb-3s gets 28.6% which EB -3 other workers gets max 10K. ROW gets 72% of that 10K(because India China Philippines and Mexico each gets 7% max). hence ROW gets maximum 7200 which leaves 2800 from the four other chargeability.

@hello mark thanks for the explanation do you know how many consular processing case is pending?

@T N as of November 1,2023 according to NVC it's 44,470 but this for everybody not just row regardless still only 10k GC so you can see the wait time is going to only get worse it's just math.

@hello mark I mean until December 2021

@T N no they don't break it down like that.

@hello mark my analysis is 44k till nov 2023 includes most of 2021 and 2022 till mar/apr since most plls have to file i140 by 6mth. so 1yr(lc)+6mth=18mth. dos data says 2023 nov-18mth=2022 mar. so dos case is around 44k till 2022.

@Y A yeah that's possible, I agree

thank you so much for the info, never known of this report.

@Thanh Pham USCIS just posted several days ago